The Second Time is not the Same

Fast food franchises spend a lot of time doing site research. They check traffic patterns, demographics, etc. Yet, the newly opened restaurants can and do fail. Things don't always work the second time. The world is a complex place and humans are equally complex. Simple answers may work once but rarely a second time. Innovations are followed by imitators and then by idiots whose greed undermines their efforts.

Old growth forests are valuable. Second growth forests are not so valuable. Part of the reason is that the wood from old growth trees has very close growth rings making the boards far stronger than boards from today's rapidly grown trees. This difference is so noticeable that old growth logs that fell overboard into lakes are being pulled up and processed for high prices. Second growth is just not the same.

In computers, there is the "second system syndrome" where people who built a successful first system fail when building their second. They want to "fix all the mistakes" they made in the first system and wind up loading down the second system so much that it fails.

It worked once, why doesn't it work again? We want to repeat success. East Texas has the bumper sticker asking God to give them a second oil boom stating that they won't squander it the second time. However, the world constantly changes. What worked before often doesn't work again. What got us rich once won't get us rich again. There are not that many people who build one successful company and then, build another successful company after leaving the first.

By the time we try the second time, the market has changed. Our competition has adapted to what we did the first time. Our customers have changed their expectations. Who can be our customers has also changed. Our motivation level and energy levels have changed. All these changes mean that the second time we try, we have to do things very differently from the first time.

Efforts to keep doing the same things to try to get the same results are wasted efforts. Unions that try to preserve the status quo wind up losing it all. Many government actions that assume things will work out the same way often fail.

In a dynamic and changing environment, we need to use intelligence, adaptability, and creativity to find a way through the mess. Instead of assuming that we can use the same strategy, tactics, and actions in the second situation, we need to think, adapt, and change. We need the freedoms to experiment, try new things, and to create new associations with people who have new ideas. We need community support for each other so that the failures don't destroy people.

In business, that means that many businesses need to constantly be reinventing themselves to find what works this year. We talk to each other in networking, sharing ideas and encouragement.

The second time is not the same, but it can be better.

Rule of Law

Back in the Wild West, it was a mark that a town was becoming civilized when they could afford to hire a sheriff. Instead of each person enforcing what they believed to be right, the sheriff would enforce written laws and bring violators before a judge. The "rule of law" is a mark that an area is safer for business. Today, some states are experimenting with allowing individuals to enforce what they believe should be right. This breakdown of the "rule of law" is not good for the business environment.

We are going through a generational change and major social changes. These changes always cause worry in those who want stability and opportunities for those who can look far enough ahead. The last time we had such generational changes, we had fighting in the streets and National Guard troops shooting people on college campus. Many people were unhappy with the changes that happened then. But we survived those changes.

Many of those who were protesting for and against the changes have mellowed. Those changes did not destroy us. The energy once directed towards changing society often got redirected into creating new ideas, new businesses, and new charities. These have all helped us move forward.

Social situations can greatly affect business profitability. Without the rule of law, businesses have to spend on force to defend themselves. When pirates roamed the seas, ships started arming themselves to the point where a merchant ship was nearly as armed as a war ship. When the pirates were wiped out, merchants spent far less on armament. Today, we are seeing a rise in piracy and ships are starting to arm themselves again.

Let us reaffirm the Rule of Law.

Risky Business

The tax office in a northern German state was printing a letter when the switch to Daylight Savings hit. That time switch confused the process so that the printer just kept printing that same letter over and over again. About 1700 copies were printed, put in envelopes, and mailed to one person.